PFF Thinks I'm An Idiot
Checking out what I wrote in the Snap Count article versus what PFF and Andy Herman thought.

I have been writing comments in the Snap Count articles noting what Pro Football Focus and/or Andy Herman thought about the performance of the various players versus. I would contrast that with what I had written immediately after the game ended based on just watching the game live. Sometimes PFF agrees with me and sometimes they seem to think I am an idiot. Ditto with Andy Herman. So, I thought I would write a separate article. Here are the PFF grades along with Andy Herman's grades when I can find them for the Miami game:
LINEBACKERS:
| Player | Overall | R Def | Pass Rush | Cov | Herman |
| Q. Walker | 68.5 | 83.3 | 76.9 | 55.2 | +0.70 |
| McDuffie | 59.2 | 81.9 | 59.3 | 49.4 | +0.40 |
| Er Wilson | 43.8 | 51.8 | 57.7 | 46.0 | Bad |
Here is what I wrote in the Snap Count article: "It might turn out that some entity like PFF gives one or several of the linebackers terrible coverage grades, but any grades should be ignored. The plan was to allow the catch over the middle and rally to the ball to limit the gain." I agree with Herman when he said in his podcast Wednesday that the Packers were willing to allow Miami to try to dink and dunk their way down the field. If that meant TE Jonnu Smith and the RBs to catch a bunch of short passes over the middle or in the flat, so be it. I don't think even Fred Warner could drop that far into zone and still stop Jonnu Smith from catching those short passes in the middle of the field. I thought Walker had a better game than PFF thought, and about the same as Herman.
The Packers took the first read away from Tagovailoa (who had been getting the ball out quicker than any other quarterback in the NFL), especially in the first half. I thought they loosened up on the press coverage in the second half while still leaving the short middle open. PFF can note that Quay Walker allowed 7 catches on 7 targets for 50 yards, but I don't care. 34 yards were after the catch, meaning the receiver caught the pass just 2 yards past the line of scrimmage, on average. Quay Walker also had 4 pressures. He has been getting better at pass rushing. McDuffie allowed 11 catches out of 14 targets for 141 yards, but I still don't care too much. That said, I do note that only 68 of those 141 yards came after the catch, meaning those receptions were made farther downfield. Still, I like the physicality McDuffie brings. They ran at Eric Wilson, and sometimes he got run over. He also gave up 4 completions on 4 targets for 39 yards.
Defensive Backs:
| Player | Overall | Cov | R Def | Herman | Snaps |
| McKinney | 78.0 | 74.5 | 62.5 | +0.10 | 71 |
| Nixon | 73.5 | 73.6 | 63.8 | +0.30 | 71 |
| Stokes | 69.7 | 69.9 | 61.1 | Unknown | 36 |
| Valentine | 60.0 | 63.1 | 48.5 | Unknown | 35 |
| Bullard | 53.5 | 53.5 | 58.8 | +0.50 | 66 |
| Ev Williams | 47.6 | 50.8 | 55.2 | Ukn/bad | 52 |
I have been pushing for Valentine over Stokes, and even Valentine over Nixon, as the starting perimeter corner back. PFF prefers Nixon to Valentine or Stokes, and it seems clear that Nixon has held up well outside. The coaches made the right choice there. Nixon is cheap at $6M per year.
PFF gave 29.6 grades to both Valentine and Stokes for tackling in the Miami game due to missed tackles. [I assume Run Defense includes coming up strong in run support and taking good angles, not just tackling.] Herman did not give numerical grades for Valentine, Stokes, or Evan Williams, but Williams was Herman's third-lowest graded defensive player. Herman noted that PFF gave Bullard a poor grade whereas Herman gave Bullard a positive grade.
I am kind of old school, so let us look at the lines. Plus, it is easier to see the offensive and defensive lines during the live telecast than other areas of the field. I wrote that in the Dolphins game the pass blocking was good and the run blocking was adequate - at least there were very few negative runs.
Offensive line:
| Player | Total | P Block | R Block | A. Herman |
| Tom | 66.7 | 80.5 | 57.0 | -0.15 |
| Rhyan | 60.6 | 81.7 | 52.9 | +0.15 |
| Myers | 60.3 | 60.4 | 59.4 | -0.45 |
| R. Walker | 60.2 | 61.7 | 64.7 | Unknown |
| Jenkins | 31.4 | 61.9 | 34.1 | -0.85 |
I should note that Pro Football Focus has been giving poor grades to Elgton Jenkins for quite some time, or at least they have given grades that were far worse than Herman's. I have complained that Jenkins has not played as well as a $16M per year guard should, but PFF's 59.2 grade season-long grade for Jenkins is too low. In previous weeks Andy Herman often just flatly disagreed with PFF about Jenkins. However, against the Dolphins, they are in accord that Jenkins had a rough game, with Herman noting that it started out well but Jenkins had some problems later in the game.
Since Herman's highest graded offensive lineman was Rhyan at just +0.15, and Tom was Herman's lowest graded offensive lineman, Walker's grade must be roughly neutral, neither particularly positive nor negative. I, myself, did not get the sense that Jenkins was having such a terrible game. I saw him miss a couple of stunts and thought he sometimes missed his blocking assignment when run blocking, but I thought they were fairly isolated incidents. I thought Jacobs was playing really well (86.4 PFF grade and +1.20 grade from Herman), but his average of 2.3 yards/carry suggested some issues with the run blocking.
DTs and DEs:
| Player | Snaps | Overall | R Def | Pass Rush | Herman |
| Clark | 45 | 70.7 | 74.2 | 60.1 | +0.50 |
| Wyatt | 28 | 64.9 | 59.5 | 67.3 | Unk/bad |
| Brooks | 26 | 61.4 | 60.7 | 59.7 | Unknown |
| Slaton | 26 | 60.3 | 58.4 | 60.4 | +0.30 |
| Wooden | 17 | 54.8 | 58.7 | 53.5 | Unknown |
| Gary | 43 | 58.7 | 66.7 | 61.3 | +0.60 |
| Enagbare | 43 | 60.1 | 61.1 | 58.6 | Unknown |
| Van Ness | 22 | 68.9 | 58.3 | 69.3 | +0.35 |
| Cox | 20 | 60.3 | 54.8 | 63.3 | Unknown |
| Mosby | 14 | 73.9 | 75.8 | 54.7 | +0.35 |
Clark had a solo tackle, a sack and a tackle for loss. I have been down on Clark for the last few years because I think he has prioritized pass rush over playing good run defense, and of course, for his contract. In this game, Herman said that Clark (and Slaton) soaked up a lot of double teams and did not get moved, allowing others to flow to the ball to make the plays. I only noticed Clark a couple of times and I failed to notice Slaton at all.
Herman gave Wyatt his worst defensive grade, but PFF gave him a 64.9 grade. As to Wyatt, PFF thinks I am an idiot and I think PFF is the idiot. I think Wyatt looks like a pass rush specialist, which is rather underwhelming for a first round pick. I am taking more of a wait and see position with Brooks and Wooden. They have time on their side as year two, day three picks. I think Brooks has shown more flashes than Wooden.
I did not write much about the DEs, other than Van Ness. I wrote that other players flushed the opposing quarterback and Van Ness merely chased the quarterback down without beating the offensive tackle. He gets what Mike Wahle calls hustle sacks and tackles. PFF thinks I am an idiot, and it looks like Herman (+0.35 for Van Ness) would not disagree. Van Ness is big, strong, and really fast, but it looks like no one has ever taught him any pass rushing techniques. Gary seems to be getting more pressures lately, though the sacks have been elusive.
Photo courtesy of Dan Powers, USA Today Network
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Comments (15)
Thegreatreynoldo
December 05, 2024 at 05:33 am
Well, that was kind of fun. I had been posting a comment noting the PFF grades but it was a couple of days after the article was published, so it toiled in obscurity.
I don't understand how PFF can give so many players poor run defense grades when Miami gained 39 yards on 14 carries, only 2.79 yards/carry. Achane has a long run of 13 yards, Mostert of 12, and Tagovailoa of 9. Those 3 runs went for 34 yards, meaning the other 11 carries netted 5 yards. The tackling grades were fine other than Valentine and Stokes.
Here is what Paul Noonan wrote about GB and PFF after the week 12 game:
"PFF still hates GB, where they rank 21st, and we’ll probably just have to make peace with it, but Green Bay is sixth in DVOA AND EPA, which is where it counts."
I have been busy. I just read the recent article by Ken Lass, which had a lot of comments with the PFF info in them, along with the article on Wyatt. Walker and Wyatt could still make the decisions on their 5th year options interesting. Wyatt, Quay and LVN (and Gary, of course) have all the physical talent a coach could ask for. Waiting to see if they can put it together.
Bitternotsour
December 05, 2024 at 09:13 am
9-3 with the three losses to the best 3 teams (record-wise). What exactly will "putting it together" entail.
Coldworld
December 05, 2024 at 11:50 am
Did they trash the run D or merely credit certain players not others? My impression that they were pretty complimentary of the role of Quay, McDuffie and Nixon in the run game. They were not so hot on Wilson, Bullard and the DL. Neither Stokes nor Valentine had terrible run grades for perimeter corners, Stokes’ being considerably better. The run support grade gets iffy because PFF does t know what they were tasked with and is guessing. I wouldn’t use either as Hafley uses Nixon and expect great outcomes (Jaire either).
McDuffie is a great help as a run defender, but he was awful in pass coverage, giving up 140 yards. I’d like to see Hopper or even Oladapo in on obvious passing downs with Cooper out. Williams looks to me like he’s playing through that injury still. He had not been the same since his return.
MakinDay
December 05, 2024 at 03:01 pm
I had to dust off the CHTV login (last was 9 years ago!) to post a much-deserved reply.
This was a lot of work Thegreatreynaldo. Keep doing it!
Your pithy snap count game analysis is my favorite thing to read each week and has been for quite some time. Didn't even know you were updating with PFF, obscurity indeed!
Maybe PFF is the idiot. Didn't they rate HaHa Clinton Dix as the best safety in the nfl the season we got rid of him? My point is you are giving an unvarnished opinion of what you see, and it enhances my enjoyment of the game. Disagreement leads us to the truth. And is entertaining!
So you have my sincere thanks... and keep it up :)
T7Steve
December 05, 2024 at 06:32 am
Thanks for the extra work and perspective, TGR.
I don't know if it's because I mostly just read your stuff, or we just agree by watching the games, but eye tests count.
It's really ridiculous how they dinged the run D against the Dolphins for giving up 39 yards. Is it still recency bias based on the previous Barry Ds?
I think the furthest apart we are, is on Wyatt. He started out great this season and is still just coming back from his sprain. I think he's going to be a force other teams will have to account for, opening up more opportunities for Clark who has shown that he plays his best ball starting in December.
Coldworld
December 05, 2024 at 11:53 am
Ankle injuries on linemen often have a lingering impact. I’m with you on that. It’s going to take more games and then hindsight to determine anything on Wyatt post injury.
Guam
December 05, 2024 at 08:39 am
I've always been skeptical of individual grades because football is a collective and complimentary game. It is tough to get pressures and sacks if your secondary can't cover WRs for at least 3.5 seconds. It is tough to cover NFL WRs for longer than 4.0 seconds if the D-line isn't generating QB pressure. Individual scores heavily rely on others doing their jobs.
Or as TGR pointed out, the defensive scheme can funnel plays at a particular position (Miami's short passing game over the middle) and individual grades can suffer (the ILB's) or they can prosper (CB's) if the plays are funneled away from your position. And finally you have the other problem that TGR again correctly pointed out. How does a rush defense that only allowed 39 yards have players with poor rush defense grades? Somebody missed the forest while looking at individual trees. Defense is a collective activity.
I know they are popular metrics, but I believe individual grades should be taken with a large grain of salt (and maybe the whole saltshaker).
TXCHEESE
December 05, 2024 at 10:40 am
Agreed on the PFF stuff. I would say there is a great number of plays that a player's assignment may make them take a bad grade, but in reality, they did their job. I think most fans that watch the games can tell if a player or team played a good or crappy game.
HarryHodag
December 05, 2024 at 09:02 am
I've largely ignored the nerds who keep trying to think they've invented something new regarding football. It's a game of will, physical conditioning, mental acuity and stamina.
In an age when anything digital is thought to overshadow human interaction, the numbers these folks push at us are absurd. Any coach worth his salt can see a player didn't have a good game. You don't need some number cruncher to say player 'x' didn't play well. Many times the nerds will say an individual had a great game while collectively the team sucked. The over-arching reality is the team sucked.
I simply ignore the game numbers put out by these folks. The cap numbers, etc. are numbers that mean something to me which are based on hard logic.
Bitternotsour
December 05, 2024 at 09:15 am
final score is the only metric.
T7Steve
December 05, 2024 at 09:54 am
Let's stick to standard. I don't want to start converting from "metric". 304.8 MM ÷ 25.4 = 12" or 1'
Bitternotsour
December 05, 2024 at 10:35 am
just be glad I'm still in base ten
HarryHodag
December 05, 2024 at 11:55 am
Amen, brother.
GregC
December 05, 2024 at 03:22 pm
I have watched a lot of Andy Herman's videos, and I appreciate his analysis, but I have no idea what his grades are based on. I tune him out when he talks about his grades. My knowledge of PFF grades is limited too. I prefer to read or listen to a word-based analysis from someone who watched the game rather than be given a bunch of numbers. That's why I like the TGR snap count articles so much. The numbers are used only for something that is clearly quantifiable (snap counts), with no formulaic rating scales.
LuisMcGuire
December 08, 2024 at 09:41 pm
The article gave me a real look.
https://geometry-dashmeltdown.co